Commodities that can give great returns in 2008
By Tarun Basu

Which are the commodities that will give investors the maximum returns in 2008? I would suggest watch out for gold, silver, crude oil, copper and silver.But what about agricultural commodities? In the Indian context, how much you can bet on the agri commodity futures can not be preducted now. A slew of measures that the government is expected to take this year may help further growth in the agri commodities; but it is unlikely that agri futures will be as appealing as gold, silver and crude oil.Spices may be an exception. There have been big price increases in almost all the spices in 2007. So there is a possibility that farmers may shift to spices for the production year of 2008 and hence have significant supply if supported well by weather.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices are anticipated to surge in the first half of '08, despite the talks of production increase from OPEC. If you look at the supply-demand dispersion in the energy market, you will come to know why the most promising supply figures from OPEC, indicating a jump of 1.8 mbpd production increase, is just sufficient to bring in a surplus of only 1.1 mbpd. However, historically OPEC has consistently underperformed its call on production.

Gold, Silver2008

will be the year when gold and silver will see further boom. The view for gold is essentially bullish for 2008 backed by the fundamentals which keep the US dollar weak over a major part of 2008. Mine supply is not expected to significant improve in case of gold. The official sector sales also seem to be a weakening supply factor, given the real economic crisis faced by most gold-holding countries like the US, UK and Germany. Then, there are chances of forex holdings diversification away from the dollar to bullion which could also add to the demand and improve the bullish factor of gold.Silver mine supply is expected to improve in 2008, thereby causing an additional surplus to the tune of about 1000 MT, which would keep the prices under pressure.

Copper

The fundamental outlook is reasonably sound for base metals like copper. Despite the current turmoil, the US will avoid recession and global economic growth will still be near 5-7% in 2008. This, together with the destocking/ re-stocking effect, suggests that LME metals demand growth could even pick up in 2008.Commodities bull run has last for 20 years historically. Currently, it has entered into the 8th year.

So the new year, and the coming years will be boom times for the commodities market, and also for discerning investors.